by Dr. Ilam Khan

Over the past month, South and Central Asia have experienced a wave of geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts. Notably, Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan marks a significant development. Simultaneously, the evolving dynamics between India and Pakistan continue to shape the region’s political landscape. China’s assertive economic policies contrast with the United States’tariff regime and ever-changing strategic foreign policy initiatives, while Russia steadily deepens its influence, particularly through thaw in relations with Pakistan, a dramatic reversal from the Cold War era when Pakistan actively opposed the erstwhile USSR’s presence in the region.

While these shifts present both opportunities and risks, they hold the potential to foster meaningful regional cooperation if rooted in sustained political dialogue and shared economic interests, rather than adversarial bloc politics. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has the potential to serve as a key platform for translating these regional developments into tangible outcomes. However, political and ideological differences among member states continue to hinder the organization’s ability to fully realize its objectives. Below are key developments that could significantly impact infrastructure, trade, regional cooperation, and peaceful coexistence.

Afghanistan–Russia Relations: A Strategic Shift

One of the most consequential moves in the region has been the rapid development of ties between Afghanistan and Russia. This began with Afghanistan requesting humanitarian aid (primarily wheat) from Russia during the recent Israel–Iran conflict, which had prompted the return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Shortly afterward, Russia formally recognized the Taliban-led government—an extraordinary turnaround, considering the two sides were perceived as adversaries for quite some time.

While the Taliban has actively sought diplomatic recognition, Russia’s recognition was unexpected and signalled a larger strategic shift. Analysts suggest this alignment among Afghanistan, Russia, and China serves as a buffer against the perceived reinvigorated U.S. involvement in the region. As Russia and China expand their presence in Afghanistan, they are likely to counter external interference in Afghan affairs.

Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations: Trilateral Engagement

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan remains fluid, oscillating between periods of cooperation and tension. These relations are primarily shaped by three factors: border disputes, the Afghan refugee crisis, and cross-border militant activities.

Pakistan has publicly criticized the Afghan interim government, including at international forums like the UN General Assembly, for allegedly sheltering banned groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). In response to rising tensions, China stepped in as a mediator, hosting high-level diplomatic talks with both countries in Beijing. The result was an agreement to strengthen trilateral relations and extend the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan—a move that promotes regional connectivity and economic cooperation.

Given the Afghanistan–Pakistan border’s history of conflict as well as its economic importance for cross-border trade, the CPEC extension could serve to stabilize the region. In a follow-up, Pakistan’s Federal Minister visited Kabul, where both sides agreed to deepen cooperation on border management, security, and trade.

Russia–Pakistan Connectivity: A Strategic Milestone

Another significant development is the agreement between Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan to extend rail and road links through Afghanistan, providing Russia and the Central Asian Republics, especially the landlocked Uzbekitan, (CARs) access to warm-water ports. For Pakistan, this agreement opens direct trade routes CARs. For the CARs, it offers critical access to global markets via Pakistan’s ports—an infrastructural milestone with lasting regional implications.

India–CARs Cooperation: Economic Expansion

India, in partnership with five CARs (excluding Azerbaijan), has initiated joint exploration of rare earth elements and critical minerals. This collaboration is not only economically and industrially significant but also pivotal for regional infrastructure and long-term stability.

India’s relations with Afghanistan, once strong between 2011–2019, have cooled following the Taliban’s rise to power. Although the two countries held a single ministerial meeting earlier this year—focused on humanitarian aid, regional connectivity, and cooperation via Chabahar Port—relations remain limited, partly due to Pakistan’s stronger influence over the Taliban regime.

India–Russia Cooperation: Infrastructure and Strategy

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin further solidified bilateral ties, particularly in trade, energy, and regional connectivity. A major point of discussion was the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a strategic infrastructure initiative linking India to Russia and Europe through Iran and the CARs. The visit underscores India’s continued strategic outreach in Eurasia.

The Revival of the Troika: Russia–India–China (RIC)

The Russia–India–China (RIC) trilateral, initially conceptualized in 1990 and formalized in 2002, held its last significant meeting in 2019. While tensions—especially between China and India—have hindered progress, recent discussions suggest a possible revival. A reactivated RIC would be a major diplomatic achievement, with the potential to enhance regional stability and counterbalance Western-led alliances.

Conclusion

The geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of South and Central Asia is undergoing rapid transformation. Despite tensions between some states, shared interests in trade, connectivity, and regional security are prompting new alliances and cooperative frameworks. These developments may also suggest a strategic pivot away from the global North toward regional self-reliance.

• Afghanistan is integrating with Russia and Central Asia, securing diplomatic recognition and access to new trade routes. Meanwhile, India maintains humanitarian ties without formal recognition of the Taliban government.
• Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan are emerging as a strategic transit hub, advancing infrastructure links with Russia and the CARs.
• India is expanding its geoeconomic footprint through mineral cooperation with Central Asia and strategic coordination with Russia, while balancing complex ties with Pakistan, China, and the U.S.
• China is actively facilitating regional diplomacy, particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains a critical platform for blending trade, security, and diplomacy. However, internal ideological divisions continue to limit its consensus-building capabilities.

As the region realigns, sustained dialogue and multilateral cooperation will be essential to transform these strategic shifts into lasting peace and prosperity.

The author is PhD in Peace and Conflict and writer of “Rehabilitation, Deradicalization, and Reintegration of Militants: A Case Study from Swat Valley“, and can be reached at ilamkhan85@gmail.com